Academic
papers
2026
Global Framings of Pandemic Recovery: Insights Across Conservation, Development and Health Fields
Authors: Carmenta, R., Anderson, L.O., Armijos, T., Few,R., Lugo, V., Marsh, H. y Ulfe Young, M.E.
Journal of Environment and Development.
Abstract
In many contexts recovery from COVID-19 is ongoing. The impacts of the pandemic were diverse and their distribution uneven, which may in part explain the diversity in the ways in which its recovery has been framed. Numerous framings concerning what constitutes ‘recovery’, what its pursuit should entail, who (or what) it should target and whose vision the notion of recovery should represent have been expressed by various fields of study. An assessment of the way in which diverse fields (e.g. health, conservation and development) have represented the priorities of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is so far not available. This knowledge gap is important since understanding the threads in common, and those distinct between fields, may help move towards a more integrated appraisal of the multiple priorities salient to recovery. Integration however also involves representing diverse knowledges, values and lived experiences and supporting disaster-resilient communities requires being attentive to the voices of the most marginalized. Due recognition of and engagement with these groups is essential for enhancing the justice and equity of recovery-focused interventions, and can help ensure that interventions do not presume, misplace or misrepresent local priorities. With growing recognition of the need for decolonial, grounded and co-developed responses to processes of recovery, nature futures and global development there is a need to understand how COVID-19 recovery has been conceived and articulated across fields, and crucially, the extent to which it has included the perceptions of socially, economically and politically marginalized groups. We analyzed 30 papers (10 per field), and asked (1) How does COVID-19 recovery tend to be framed within these fields, including the representation of intersecting risks? (2) Where is there divergence and congruence in recovery discourses across these fields, and what would an integrated understanding of recovery look like? (3) To what extent are local voices reflected or acknowledged in these international framings? We found that while perspectives differed, all highlighted how COVID-19 exposed pre-existing interconnected crises. Many framed the root cause as flawed economic growth models, which was considered in need of various degrees of transformation combined with more integrated governance. Crucially, few framings had strong representation of local, or marginalized voices and relatively few papers actively grounded their calls, or prominently advocated for such practices. Our findings point to a need for more co-created knowledge generation and agenda setting for COVID-19 recovery, and disaster recovery more broadly.
2025
The meanings of ‘recovery’: grassroots perspectives from Colombia and Peru in the aftermath of the pandemic
Authors: Few, R., Cristancho Garrido, H., Ulfe, M. E., Trelles, A., Tebboth, M. G. L.
New Area Studies
Abstract
This article presents a critical reflection on the meaning of crisis recovery, as experienced from the grassroots. It draws insights from a programme of research with indigenous and campesino communities in Colombia and Peru, undertaken in the period following the COVID-19 pandemic. Through a flexible, qualitative approach, the teams engaged in broad-ranging discussions about people’s concerns and aspirations. These exchanges revealed how people’s pandemic stories were inherently interconnected with other, ongoing and everyday risks associated with conflict, marginalization, poverty, displacement and environmental degradation. They also underlined how misconceived it can be to view the pandemic experience as some form of break from ‘normality’, externalizing the notion of crisis in a way that fails to acknowledge the historic and structural roots of risk and vulnerability. On the other hand, we also saw how capacities for coping with the crisis were already embedded in communities, partly as a consequence of long-faced injustices, reflected for example in the resurgence of communal care and indigenous practices. These perspectives conveyed a conception of recovery not as a linear or individualized trajectory, but as a multifaceted collective process that seeks to confront the dynamics of ongoing risks and injustices.
FLAME 1.0: a novel approach for modelling burned area in the Brazilian biomes using the maximum entropy concept.
Authors: Barbosa, M. L. F., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Ferreira, I. J. M., da Veiga, R. M., Bradley, A., Molin, P. G., and Anderson, L. O.
Geoscientific Model Development
Abstract
As fire seasons in Brazil lengthen and intensify, the need to enhance fire simulations and to comprehend fire drivers becomes crucial. Yet determining what drives burning in different Brazilian biomes is a major challenge, with a highly uncertain relationship between drivers and fire. Finding ways to acknowledge and quantify that uncertainty is critical in ascertaining the causes of Brazil's changing fire regimes. We propose FLAME (Fire Landscape Analysis using Maximum Entropy), a new fire model that integrates Bayesian inference with the maximum entropy concept, enabling probabilistic reasoning and uncertainty quantification. FLAME utilises bioclimatic, land cover, and human driving variables to model fires. We apply FLAME to Brazilian biomes, evaluating its performance against observed data for three categories of fires: all fires (ALL), fires reaching natural vegetation (NAT), and fires in non-natural vegetation (NON). We assessed burned-area responses to different explanatory variable groups. The model showed adequate performance for all biomes and fire categories. Together, maximum temperature and precipitation are important factors influencing burned area in all biomes. The number of roads and forest boundaries (edge densities), forests and pastures, and carbon in dead vegetation showed higher uncertainties among the responses. Overall, the uncertainties were larger for the NON category, particularly for the Pampas and Pantanal regions. Customising explanatory variable selection and fire categories based on biome characteristics could contribute to a more biome-focused and contextually relevant analysis. Moreover, prioritising regional-scale analysis is essential for decision-makers and fire management strategies. FLAME is easily adaptable and can be used in various locations and periods, serving as a valuable tool for more informed and effective fire prevention measures.
2023
Fire exposure index as a tool for guiding prevention and management
Authors: De Freitas A., Ferreira J., Escada M., Reis J., Leite C., Andrade D., Spínola J., Soares M., Anderson L.
Frontiers in Physics
Abstract
Protected Areas (PA) in Brazil have legal instruments for the conservation and protection of fauna and flora. The Sustainable Use Reserves (SURs) category have mechanisms to ensure the security of traditional lifestyles. Despite the existence of mechanisms and information that contribute to the protection of forest areas, threats to its conservation such as deforestation, fires, and climate extremes are increasing. Fires represent a major threat to many sustainable development goals, such as climate, health and food security, especially for people who depend on forest resources. This study covers two SURs, the Tapajós National Forest (FLONA Tapajós) and the Tapajós-Arapiuns Extractive Reserve (RESEX Tapajós-Arapiuns) located in Pará State, Brazilian Amazon, where deforestation, fires and land conflicts have escalated during the last decade. This research aimed to analyze environmental and land management data to construct a Fire Exposure Index (FEI), identify the pressure exerted on SURs and a tool to guide strategic planning since exposure is a component of vulnerability, therefore also of risk. The index is composed of four dimensions: fire, landscape, climate and territorial management. We analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamics between 2003 and 2020 to determine the Fire Exposure Index in 2020. The results indicate where and how interactions occur in priority areas, with regard to fire, landscape, climate and territorial management. High values of FEI (above 0.8) were mainly distributed around the northern and southeastern part of FLONA Tapajós in approximately 1,300 km2, an area occupied by a high density of roads and agricultural expansion, which may affect the interior of the SURs. In the RESEX Tapajós-Arapiuns, the area with high FEI occur along the banks of the Arapiuns and Tapajós rivers, covering an area of about 330 km2, where most of the riverside communities live. The methodology developed in this research is potentially replicable for other protected areas in Brazil and in the world to support understanding and the development of management strategies to deal with fire threats. The additional format of communicating the results of this research to society and decision makers was conceived as a dashboard to facilitate its use.
Forest Degradation in the Southwest Brazilian Amazon: Impact on Tree Species of Economic Interest and Traditional Use
Authors: Costa, J. G., Fearnside, P. M., Oliveira, I., Anderson, L. O., de Aragão, L. E. O. e. C., Almeida, M. R. N., Clemente, F. S., Nascimento, E. d. S., Souza, G. d. C., Karlokoski, A., de Melo, A. W. F., de Araújo, E. A., Souza, R. O., Graça, P. M. L. d. A., & da Silva, S. S.
Fire
Abstract
Amazonian biodiversity has been used for generations by human populations, especially by Indigenous peoples and traditional communities in their cultural, social and economic practices. However, forest degradation, driven by forest fires, has threatened the maintenance of these resources. This study examined the effects of recent forest fires on species with timber, non-timber and multiple-use potential in Brazil’s state of Acre. Forest inventories in five forest types were analyzed, identifying species with timber, non-timber and multiple-use potential based on a review of existing scientific articles, books and studies in the technical literature. The indicators of the effect of forest fires on species density were based on the mean and standard deviation of tree density and absolute abundance. We found that 25% of the tree individuals have potential for use by humans, 12.6% for timber, 10.7% non-timber and 1.4% have multiple-use potential. With the negative impact of fire, the reduction in timber, non-timber and multiple-use potential can range from 2 to 100%, depending on the vegetation type and especially on the recurrence of fire. However, even in forests that are degraded by fire, species that are useful to humans can be maintained to a certain degree and contribute to other environmental services, thus they must be preserved.
There’s no smoke without fire!
Authors: Oighenstein Anderson, L., Silva S., Melo A.
CSP Cadernos de Saude Publica. Reports in Public Health
Amazon deforestation data are used as a gauge, at the national and international levels, to indicate the current situation of the political management of the control of and combat against this process, which is usually widely disseminated in the media. Due to the weakening of environmental policies in recent years, there was a forecast that deforestation for the year 2020 would be the highest of the decade, above that of 2019, which exceeded 10,800km2, the highest rate since 2008. Although 2020 had a slightly lower rate than 2019, deforestation in 2021 and 2022 exceeded 12,000km2, which again featured prominently in global media. Recently, the Yanomami crisis revealed another growing threat to Amazonian life: the push of mining activities in the region. Estimates point to increased mining rates mainly after 2010, and 2020 data showed that the total mining area exceeded the industrial mining area. The negative impacts - beyond social and cultural ruptures caused to indigenous peoples - include increased disease rates, environmental contamination, and food insecurity